Research

Development finance institutions (DFIs), operated by donor governments to support private sector development in the Global South, often face informational barriers when deciding where to invest abroad. We argue that traditional Official Development Assistance (ODA), delivered through bilateral aid agencies, can play a catalytic role in guiding these investment decisions. Specifically, aid agencies generate valuable, location-specific, investment-relevant knowledge through their ODA-funded activities across regions of the Global South. When shared with DFIs, this information reduces uncertainty and increases the likelihood of DFI investment in those same regions. To test this expectation, we leverage an original geocoded dataset comprising investments by 12 DFIs from 12 OECD-DAC donor countries, matched with subnational ODA data from the GODAD dataset for the period 2000–2020. Our quantitative analyses reveal a robust and consistent association between ODA activity and DFI entry at the subnational level. To probe the mechanism, we conduct qualitative case studies of Germany, France, and the United States, illustrating how aid agencies and DFIs exchange information and coordinate investment decisions.

Populist leaders increasingly criticize global governance systems, portraying them as elitist and threatening national sovereignty. While research has explored how populism affects international organizations, less is known about how a rise in populism in donor countries affects engagement with standards in international development cooperation. This research note argues that populism affects how donors classify and present foreign aid projects. Focusing on the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC), we theorize a mechanism of classification avoidance, whereby bureaucrats anticipate political scrutiny from populists and reduce the use of policy markers that signal alignment with global priorities. Using project-level data on aid activities from 1998 to 2022, we show that increases in anti-elitism in donor legislatures are associated with declines in the share of aid classified as targeting DAC priority areas, alongside stable project screening practices and some but more limited sectoral reallocation.

We review the literature on the political economy of foreign aid, examining the geopolitical returns generated by Official Development Assistance (ODA). Our paper identifies under which conditions donors are able to influence political and economic outcomes in recipient countries, shape their behavior in global affairs, and adjust to domestic and international challenges. Building on an emerging body of research in international development finance, we propose future directions for the study of ODA in a contested global landscape.

Debt transparency is essential for managing sovereign debt, but it is often hindered by political and technical constraints. This paper introduces the Princeton-NYU Debt Transparency (PNDT) measure, a standardized index of debt transparency over time and across countries. The PNDT leverages missing data from the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System using a Bayesian item response theory model. Covering 113 countries from 1994 to 2022, the index is correlated with the domestic electoral cycle, openness, financial crises, and other international political dynamics. Debt transparency is not merely a matter of technical capacity but is also a political choice made by elected officials.

The recent European Global Gateway Initiative pledged more than 300 billion euros in public and private investment in infrastructure to satisfy international demand while maximizing the economic interests of member countries. However, European development cooperation policy is traditionally far removed from the hard sectors, with an emphasis on promoting democracy and social well-being. How has the European development cooperation architecture evolved to support infrastructure investment in the Global South? We trace the way in which the European Commission has reformed the European development architecture to place national Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) center stage in the financing of the Global Gateway Initiative. Using an original database, we show that DFIs are at the core of the GGI initiative and that the projects funded support European economic interests.